The Debate Debate -- Clinton Clash in Buffalo Causes a Pundit Debate
by Joseph Mercurio
The debate in Buffalo put the Senate contest back on the map. What
seemed like an election that was petering out is now a race. It is no
longer David and Goliath or Hillary vs. anybody-but-Hillary; it is now
a contest between equals.
That's a big score for Lazio; he needed to become Hillary's equal, to
show that he has accomplished things in Congress and deserves a
promotion. He also needed to show that he is capable of waging a
substantial campaign against an international figure, and that there
are substantive differences between them. Most importantly, he had to
transform the anybody-but-Clinton voters into Lazio voters. Arguably,
he began to do all of that in this debate.
Men and women are equal, but that doesn't mean they are treated the
same in politics. It's tricky for a male candidate to run against a
female candidate. There are additional dynamics in play. Voters watch
carefully how her opponent, through both words and body language,
treats the woman.
Going into the Buffalo debate, this must have been on the minds of
Lazio and his handlers. They had a job to do, but they needed to do it
without alienating women voters who are currently supporting Lazio in
unusually high numbers. But he had an ace in the hole: his Boy Scout
image and unthreatening demeanor allowed him to be more aggressive
with Hillary than other male candidates could with a female opponent.
And Lazio wasn't the only one being tough. Tim Russert opened the
debate with embarrassing television clips of Hillary and tough
questions about the president's indiscretions and their impact on the
nation. Many people were astounded by Russert's boldness, but they
were legitimate hardball political questions for a U. S. Senate
candidate. And though rattled, Hillary weathered them as best she
could and the debate settled down into a solid issue-oriented battle
between her and Lazio.
Overnight polling showed that voters who already supported Hillary
were offended by the congressman's aggressiveness; voters that
disliked her before the debate did not view his actions as a negative.
In fact 35 percent of viewers said the debate made them feel more or less
favorable to Lazio, while only 29 percent felt that way about Hillary -- even
though those interviewed by pollsters Blum and Weprin said she won the
debate 49-36.
The public wanted to see what these two candidates are about. Eighteen
percent of Upstate households with televisions tuned in and 9.5 percent of
downstaters watched the debate. However, these numbers are likely to
be higher among voters-probably many more in the New York City market
where out of state voters are in the market. Moreover, the debate
actually gained audience each quarter hour, suggesting that viewers
were not only interested enough to turn on their sets, they liked what
they saw and stayed tuned.
Those viewers were rewarded for their time and interest because,
towards the end of the debate, Lazio pulled a memorable debate stunt,
which commanded most of the post-debate coverage. He challenged his
opponent, walking boldly across the stage to her podium with paper and
pen in hand, to sign a pledge to ban "soft money" contributions for
the rest of the campaign.
It was a well-executed debate tactic. But it also was a risky gambit
against a female candidate -- he invaded her space. As sexist as it
sounds, no one would have questioned the move against a male
candidate. Indeed, Lazio risked his lead among women voters to
dramatically display two substantive distinctions between him and his
opponent-character and campaign finance reform.
Too bad the stunt was not about a core issue voters care about, like
education, health care, jobs, or crime. That would have been a
devastating punch. Voters aren't interested in "hard" and "soft
money." It is an issue that rarely moves vote. People know it costs
money to communicate with voters and that cash equals political
speech, protected by the First Amendment. Moreover, in a hotly
contested election, voters want to hear from candidates so they can
make an informed decision.
If Lazio mounts a major media campaign on issues like education,
targeting women and parents who he's already doing well with, he could
solidify his support with them and gain the lead.
Will Hillary finally tell women what they want to hear? Will Gore's
numbers fade leaving Hillary without coattails? More later.
Joseph Mercurio is a national political consultant. His web site is www.nationalpolitical.com