Strong Wind Blowing
by Joseph Mercurio

A strong win blew across the country and lots of Republicans fell, especially more conservative Republicans. In New York State, the Republican defeat was so big that Assemblyman Denny Farrell stepped down as State Democratic Party Chair, saying that he could not top the positive change that occurred on his watch. The new governor will likely appoint a successor form Long Island or the Erie County area. For the first time in most people’s memories, the state's Democrats have all five statewide elected officials.

As big as the win for Democrats was, it could have been bigger. Partisan gerrymandering and the fabled Republican micro-targeted 72 Hour GOTV (get out the vote) Plan cut into the victory in Congressional races nationally and in the state. Nonetheless, the Democrats reversed the margin of control in the House, took control of the Senate, picked up six governors and the Republicans lost control of 10 state legislative houses.

Even with the Democratic State Senate campaign committee going to sleep in the spring, Republican state Senator Spano has gone down to defeat, Democratic Senator Klein survived in a district drawn for his Republican predecessor, and in Queens, Serf Maltese received only 51.2% while the Democratic Party looked the other way.

Gerrymandering and organization saved House Republicans upstate, however, as Congress members James T. Walsh received only 51% of the vote, John R. Kuhl Jr. won with 52%, and RCCC Chair Thomas M. Reynolds came back from behind after a snowstorm let him show how seniority could deliver for the district to get only 51%. Expect Spitzer and the Assembly’s Democratic majority to discuss making future reapportionment hurt Republican chances or be referred to a non-partisan commission.

The open Congressional seat was caught in the wave and went to Democrat Arcuri with a comfortable 8-point margin. Heavily targeted Congressman Sweeney went down when his female opponent Gillibrand’s campaign in effect raised the preverbal question, “Do you still beat your wife,” when her side made an issue of a domestic abuse 911 call and the Republican Congressman’s current and former wives answered—no. That story, added to the frat party expose, was too much for voters.

A third surprise win for the Democrats was the Sue Kelly seat. She was not on the endangered list of any pundit and had a well drawn district, but she lost by a small margin anyway. Her campaign did not try to create a negative image of her opponent early, the Democrat had lots of well organized troops, and Speaker Silver and Congressman Engel intervened with a conservative Jewish group that swung their voters en mass to the Democrat. This seat will be in play next time.

Now that local House Republicans are in the minority nationally and will lose committee chairs and the ability to bring home the beacon, Democratic leaders expect to pick up three, four or more seats here next time, when Democratic turnout will be even higher, since it’s a presidential year. Democratic leaders expect to pick up state Senate seats for the same reason.

Conservatives did not just lose seats, they also lost issues. There were loads of ballot measures up where they also did poorly. Efforts to restrict in some way a woman’s right to choose went down in every state where it was on the ballot, while increases in the minimum wage were approved all over the country. In New York it may be time to end cross party endorsements.

Nationally, at least four people who have been mentioned as future presidential candidates crashed and burned; and others spent this years campaign supporting candidates who went down to defeat. As the Republican Party collapsed in New York State, the presidential aspirations of Governor Pataki diminished, because he left the party here in a shambles. Without his office in the Capitol next year will continue his decline.

Giuliani spent the campaign ingratiating himself to Republican leaders and his party’s right wing base, but most of the candidates who he spoke for will not be in office should he run. He will have to spend 2007 reorganizing if he plans to run for president. Mayor Bloomberg on the other hand had more success cherry-picking progressives who had a better chance of winning, which improves his standing in national Republican circles. He can now use 2007 to find more friends nationally should he run for president, while he vies for control of the state party with Speaker Bruno.

Statewide Democrats did superbly. Spitzer and Hillary racked up historic wins and both Cuomo and Hevesi had convincing substantial victory margins. Hevesi did so well in fact that googoos (good government types) will have a hard time making a case against him now that the people have spoken so clearly. After all, how could googoos say, for example, that the NYC Council should not overturn term limits because the people have spoken and now argue for taking the decision of who should be the Comptroller out of the people’s hands. Expect to see Hevesi stay in office, helping his friends and remembering those who walked away from him.

The only question that remains is: Who will Spitzer appoint to run the government? The beginnings look like a hunt for the best and the brightest, but expect it to also include incumbent state and city legislators who move to the executive branch, thus creating special elections next year.

What major projects will begin? Look for quick starts on projects like the Second Avenue Subway, Ground Zero, Governors Island, Moynihan Station, and the new Tapanzee Bridge, not to mention Congressman Jerry Nadler’s rail freight tunnel getting started in earnest. There will be increased economic development in upstate and expect school aid for New York City to get real money.

Will someone take the leadership of the Democratic State Senate Campaign Committee and begin the process of do locally for New York what Senator Chuck Schumer did nationally in the US Senate? Will Bloomberg becomes the leader of the state’s Republicans funding it like Rockefeller to increase the standing of progressives, while reducing the influence of the conservative wing like he did nationally? Does Hillary’s campaign for president begin or will a leadership slot in the US Senate leadership look too good? More later.

Joseph Mercurio has worked as a political consultant for more than 25 years and has provided electronic media services in every part of the United States, on nearly 500 campaigns, propositions and other ballot initiatives. His web site URL is www.nationalpolitical.com.